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An approach that gives very similar results to yours but is more scientific is to multiply the initial estimates by e (2.718). Or, if you're conservative, then by pi.


The above approach uses the factor 2.2. Why would your factors be any better?


2.2 is just an arbitrary number.

e is also just an arbitrary number, but it looks like someone calculated it using sophisticated math.


Wouldn't it be 2.4 as you are adding 20% of the already doubled estimate?


Yes.


Nitpick: x * 2 * 1.2 == x * 2.4, not 2.2


Extended nitpick: Technically, they only said "then add 20%". They didn't specify of what that 20% is. It's up to interpretation whether they mean 20% of the original value or the doubled value.


Because e is more scientific.


Semi-seriously, e is a number defined by recursive growth.

So if you estimate to Level 1, and then break down to Level 2 sub-tasks, then Level 3, your estimate will be out by the same amount each time. and your total error will be a multiplicative series.

If you have an infinite number of levels - which is reasonable for most real-world projects, although this may not be obvious in the planning stages - e will get you nicely in the ballpark.




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