The laptop isn't really a lesser desktop. It can do anything a desktop can do, but with slightly worse performance.

It won't be until the iPad's input device is just about as good as a physical keyboard and you can code and word process effectively that it will be viable, and I think that's a long, long way off.

Laptops fit much better into many people's lives than desktops as a primary computer, including power users. And a power user's primary computer can't just be good enough in most situations.

Most importantly, there's a lot more power users of computers than there are of cameras, and that number is growing quickly. It won't just be a tiny niche of hackers that aren't ok with being physical-keyboardless whenever they're on the go.

My folks are looking at getting a new computer - and right now I'm torn between getting them a laptop (and then making them buy a real monitor to work on), or just getting them the gorgeous 27" iMac.

I mean, I could buy them a 27" IPS screen + a laptop or Mac Mini, but it seems almost pointless, and would likely be MORE expensive.

I think it's safer to say that the hulking monstrosities of towers, with the requisite puddle of wires and incomprehensible operation - those are on the way out in a big way. A large segment of the population doesn't do any computing on the go - but have in recent years been buying laptops (and then just leaving them in one place) just for the simplicity and the ease of setup/use. If desktops can clone this (and the iMac has for the most part) and give a better user experience (almost guaranteed) there's a lot of room here.

Just agreeing with you... and I am a programmer, not just a home user.

I'm not an average user. I'm a programmer, and an occasional gamer. I have a laptop with a fast CPU, real graphics chip and high-resolution screen. Bought refurbished, it was still probably twice as much money as the average user spends on a computer.

Even for gaming, my current laptop can handle everything I've thrown at it at the highest settings and I can take it to lan parties on the tube. The only reason I would ever recommend a desktop is the lower price.

I happen to be using my laptop for gaming now, and it can handle everything, but I fully expect to need a new desktop in a year or two, because I won't be able to update the graphics card. The laptop will be fine for everything but gaming at that point.

Visual artists might like a tablet, but a different kind of tablet that's pressure-sensitive and uses a stylus. Apple might do well to create an iPad Pro that runs Photoshop and has a stylus.

Not even necessarily the case. I doubt I'd notice a performance difference if all I have open is a terminal window, a web browser and a text editor - which is usually all I need for work.

I hate it whenever Apple releases a new product, this extreme overhyping is customary. To be honest I'm excited for Apple's eventual downturn so I can stop seeing this hipster-fanboy-driven drivel any time the company does anything.

I love Apple products but the consumerism disgusts me. I find it difficult to even care about the iPad at all because I know in 6-months another version will be out with a bigger hard disk and some new gimmick I'm told I'm not supposed to do without simply to increase my data usage on the device so I'll later upgrade to the next model with the bigger hard drive (iPod Nano).

Maybe the very lowest end cameras have been replaced by the lowest end phones but as far as I can tell, higher-end cameras are doing as well as ever.

Similarly, my netbook runs Emacs. An ipad doesn't. Anything that can't run Emacs isn't usable.

  When my cameraphone can give me an 8 megapixel
  shot that is actually clear enough to print,
  let me know

  Anything that can't run Emacs isn't usable.

Why is this that so many are obsessed with what iPad does not do, instead of how well it does what it does? How difficult it is to grasp that: a) iPad is not intended to replace anything and b) it's first and foremost consumption device.

Are we so used to eat from the same pot we did the cooking that we now longer accept that plate may be better device to eat from?

I'm not even an Emacs user, but I'm certain that there are modes for every one of those. Emacs even has modes for video editing and photo editing. And I've been told the Emacs browser is the most accessible browser for vision-impaired users.

> Why is this that so many are obsessed with what iPad does not do, instead of how well it does what it does? How difficult it is to grasp that: a) iPad is not intended to replace anything

The grandparent was commenting on an article that specifically claimed that the iPad was going to replace laptops. Hence it is only fair that (s)he would talk about what loss the switch from a laptop to iPad would mean.

How often do you crop photos? Being able to take in more of the shot and focus in on the details is priceless. Granted, shrinking the picture to 1/4 size is unusual, but it's still worth having the option. (It means you can always shoot wide, and not worry about sudden movements, etc.)

As for camera phones, Verizon almost never has a flash. That cripples their camera phones.

I bought a point and shoot this summer, but that was so I had something I could go snorkeling with. (Waterproof to 30ft and wouldn't want to pay thousands for an equivalent SLR even if I could scuba dive with it.)

Who said I wanted to browse the web, watch videos, and edit photos? The last one I especially hate doing.

How often do you print 16"x20" prints, because only for this size you need 8Mpx?

Never. Here are pictures taken with my camera phonen:

http://jrockway.posterous.com/

I dare you to tell me I could get a usable print out of any of those.

I think this is the most important point in this entire thread :p

Although I'd also point out that even if it did run Emacs, I'm not sure how fun it would be to use Emacs' key combos with a software keyboard.

The company that comes up with a way to have the screen close to my face and the keyboard in my lap will win my vote. That is one reason that, while I use my netbook for hours on end to surf and read, I rarely use it for coding/writing. I like the freedom of having my (obnoxiously clicky) keyboard and screen in different physical locations.

With apt and linux I have an awesome free app "store" with thousands of apps that have been vetted by the community, a task that Apple's app store is far from accomplishing.

I can connect to the internet via bluetooth through my phone's connection.

I use this laptop to write lots of code on, and rarely mind the slightly slower processor, slightly smaller keyboard and slightly smaller screen.

All I'd ask for is a bit more battery life, but surely UNR will compile in top end kernel optimizations for battery life, and maybe my next $200 netbook will be a bit faster and get 10 hours per charge.

1) The laptop still has several advantages over an iPad or similar device. The full keyboard, for example. And in the specific case of the iPad, open apps.

2) Many of the supposed weaknesses of laptops in his diagram -- expense, low battery life, etc. -- are not necessary conditions of laptops, but incidental. Cheap, high-battery-life laptops (like netbooks) do exist.

3) One of the main reasons camera-phones replaced point-and-shoot cameras is that people already carried phones and the things came embedded. I'd never have bought a camera of that low quality if it didn't come attached to something I already carry.

Camera phones are replacing point-and-shoot cameras because they're starting to catch up to point-and-shoot cameras in terms of quality. Moreover, your regular consumer can do just fine with a slightly blurry 5 megapixel image because all he wants to do is upload his Saturday-night-party pictures on Facebook. (Offtopic: most non-techie people I know prefer to use goodish-quality POS cameras for their vacation/wedding/$IMPORTANT_OCCASION pics because they know cameraphones suck.)

Now the iPad is a completely different beast. It has been designed from the ground up as a media consumption device. Sooner or later, people will realize that the iPad is a kickass entertainment device, but it's useless when you need to work. Just imagine how painful it would be to type up a 200 page report on that thing, even with an external keyboard.

There are a bunch of people who use their computers for actual work, and this bunch is not limited to hackers. Architects, designers, musicians, filmmakers, doctors, researchers, teachers, retail store owners -- all these people need tools - both software and hardware - that the iPad simply doesn't support. Okay, let's assume Apple makes the device more open, or a better device like the Notion Ink Adam takes off. Even then, tablet computers (that's what they're called, right?) will never be powerful enough for most people because of hardware limitations. Media producers, at least, need powerful CPUs and/or GPUs. And tons of storage. There's no way a tablet computer can compare to a full-blown laptop or desktop in terms of raw performance.

Now, I understand the argument in this article is that people will prefer using desktops as work computers and tablet computers as portable computers. The OP is arguing that laptops are a poor compromise between power and portability. Sure, you get more performance-per-dollar with a desktop than a laptop, but laptops are useful not because they're portable computers but because they can double up as desktops. Plug in an external display and keyboard, and you're good to go. And, of course, they can do everything desktops can do.

I, for one, wouldn't want to go to college with only an iPad in hand. I do a lot of reading/programming in the library between (and sometimes during :p) lectures.

PS: I really don't want to sound like a fanboy, but if you want a laptop that is comfortable and has about 8 hours of battery life (10 if you dim the display and turn off WiFi/Bluetooth when you're not using them), get a Mac :)

Samsung, Panasonic and Olympus are attacking the incumbent duopoly of Canon and Nikon by building cameras that have interchangeable lenses like an SLR, but use an LCD viewfinder instead of a bulky and complex mirror and prism. By substituting complex mechanical and optical parts for electronics, the smaller players rob Canon and Nikon of much of their competitive advantage.

Further up the food chain, Canon and Nikon are making great efforts to take on Panasonic, Sony and JVC (and even Panavision and Arai) by leveraging their optical expertise to offer a lower-cost alternative to professional camcorders and even 35mm movie cameras.

I find it very interesting that in the compact digital camera market, the megapixel war is almost entirely finished - almost all marketing is now done on the basis of ease of use, low-light performance or novel features like face recognition or panorama modes. The cameraphone is certainly supplanting the digital camera at the low end, but the digital camera is also supplanting the camcorder.

In spite of what many might regard as a fatal blow from phone cameras that effectively cost nothing, the market for digital cameras is thriving because people are taking and sharing more and more photographs. I think we have a great deal to learn from what is going on in the digital photography market.

Laptops will continue to be used for the intended purpose, that is, mobile computing. And suddenly we will see iPads where we didn't even see laptops before. A laptop is 5 pounds. An iPad is 1.5 pounds. One you consciously think about bringing, the other just comes with you anytime you have a bag.

I see this as different from the point-and-shoot to cameraphone scenario. A cameraphone replaces every feature of a P&S, whereas an iPad does not replace 99% of the use-case for having and using a laptop. Not yet, anyway. Wait until the apps catch up. Major apps like Photoshop, Skype, TextMate, Lightroom, Visual Studio, anything corporate.

Really?

> Not yet, anyway. Wait until the apps catch up. Major apps like Photoshop, Skype, TextMate, Lightroom, Visual Studio, anything corporate.

Also wait until people get used to the interface. Being able to code on an iPad is more than just having Emacs/Vim/etc running on it (which will never happen for the iPad so long as Apple is the only one making 'Pad' devices). You have to be able reliably type for more then just a few emails and web comments.

I still use my digital camera when I want to do "serious" photography, whether it's for taking family photos or any other event that I want to perserve a memory. When it doesn't matter or when my digital camera isn't available, I fallback to my iphone.

The same will be true with a tablet. It won't replace my laptop for work, serious web surfing, research, etc, but it might be there for me when I'm bored and just want to consume content. It will never replace my laptop, but may be light enough and convenient enough to be replacement for for some of today's laptop tasks.

For some people, a camera phone is a enough of a camera. For some people, a tablet may be enough of a computer. For most people, they'll probably want both.

Due to the fact that good lenses and flash require a certain amount of space, and no amount of technology is going to change that any time soon, cameraphones will NEVER be as good at ANY kind of pictures as even the cheapest point-and-shoots. These are phones FIRST. The camera is just another bullet point in the feature list.

A multi-touch tablet with an OS and a bunch of applications designed from the ground up exclusively for a touch-based interface isn't a second class citizen here. The primary purpose of the iPad is for using applications. It is, in some ways, better than a laptop for certain tasks. It comes back from sleep quicker, is more portable, sips the battery slower, and touch interfaces work better for many applications.

In fact, when I think all of this is over, it might be a boon for desktops. While it's cute to hack code in the kitchen or at Starbucks, let's face it, you aren't getting as much work done when you're stuck on that tiny screen, using that cramped keyboard, fiddling around with that touchpad. Laptops will continue to be very important, but it might end up being cheaper and work out better for many people just to buy something like a mac mini and a tablet device.

In the end, can't we all just agree that we have different needs and that each of us is entitled to have the devices that we choose and afford?

I can understand why some people might feel that 1680x1050 is cramped, but it's enough for me to comfortably have two files and a REPL or two open in Emacs. The keyboard and pointing stick on my Thinkpad are my preferred input devices; if I had a desktop, I'd buy a trackpoint keyboard to go with it. I even like fiddling around with that touchpad: it makes for a great scroll surface.

Last time I tried to get work done on a desktop, I kept jamming my fingers in to the giant spaces between the keys and getting annoyed that I had to reach for a mouse.

Especially on the screen size thing - I have a dual-screen setup, yet I mostly use only one screen. I run most applications fullscreened, and for a time - when I was using Linux, I'm not right now - I tried running ion, wmii, etc.

I think it all comes down to getting into the mindset of doing one thing at a time. It's nice that we can have more apps open at once, ready for use, but being able to pay attention to both only translates into a helpful environment in the particular situation where workflow requires having two things open simultaneously.

Two of the computers are desktops - one of them with a 30" monitor and 8 Gigabytes of memory (That was a big deal three years ago. :-), One of the Laptops is a four year old MBP, one of the laptops is a two-year old MBP.

I'm not including the Half-dozen Latitude D600s I use for consoling and labwork.

I am enthusiastically looking forward to my iPad acquisition tomorrow, but I expect it will be replacing my iPhone/Kindle application interaction. For serious work, I _already_ use my Laptop, not my desktop. There really is very little I need the Desktop for, with the possible exception of my always-on VMware cluster of about 15 Unix Systems (8 OpenBSD, and about 5-7 Ubuntu) that I use for OS and Network Simulations.

Everything else I already do on my Laptop. I can only imagine how much more powerful a current MBP Unibody laptop would be.

There really is very little that a desktop offers _me_, except the always on and somewhat higher/cheaper memory parameters. Oh, and the Big Disk. (Though, at home, my TerraNAP NAS is the substitute for that on my Laptop)

So, nice idea, but, ultimately will be wrong. Laptops are not going anywhere, though we may use them a _little_ less in the office. Probably a lot less at home, though.

A laptop is a desktop substitute; it's keyboard+screen in a much more convenient package with a bearable decrease in performance.

An iPad is a paper substitute. It fits this niche precisely because it does not have a keyboard. It's a miserable failure as a laptop substitute because it isn't one.

Comparing it to a laptop is like comparing a motorcycle to a bus. Once you've said not to get one if you want the other there's not much else interesting to say.

Before any of this happens, the iPad is sadly any thing but an iPod Touch (albeit bigger and badder of course).

I've seen tech folks point out that the iPad must be great because it's something that their mothers want to use. But is that a good thing? Are the same qualities that are attracting your mother to the device the same qualities that would inspire strong adoption? Make the device popular among teenagers? The business community? Artists? The tech crowd?

I can't wait for the iPad to come out because I'm hoping I'll finally have an epiphany about exactly what makes this device worth purchasing.

Will laptops diminish similarly? Probably a bit. But the same was claimed about netbooks, though Apple wasn't making them, and there's still the large amount of people who do work on laptops who will guarantee a market. Besides, there's too much crap out there, some tighter competition would probably be good.

Most people use a laptop not as a computer but as an information access device. The iPad bests the laptop for this.

Also, I have been waiting for years for phone cameras to become good enough, but last month finally gave up and bought a real digicam again.

Still hope that eventually phone cams could become good enough, but not holding my breath atm.

That wasn't so hard now, was it?

I've got a blackberry, an eee, an ibm laptop, multiple desktops, and a good server. I carry my phone everywhere, so I get email/sms/gvoice/facebook/msn/yahoo messages there. If I need a computer, I can use my eee, which is almost always in my van, for windows and linux apps. And to top it off, if I need raw cpu power, I can log in at my apartment to my server and 'crappycluster' of ubuntu eualyptus testing.

As per the iPad, are there any "real apps" that offer printing via cups, ssh, vnc/rdesktop or the multitudes that give access to a real machine? Probably not. I'm sure there are on the 3rd party ipod app servers.... But not on the main Apple controlled one

I mean, people, this is a full touch computer that Apple has dumbed down to a youtube viewing device... And its capable of soo much more.